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Cruiser
Posts: 256
Florida | Have you considered Polaris stock? I just made a purchase and although anything is a gamble in this market, it looks like it might be a good time to get into this stock. That said, I wouldn't buy Harley stock at this point due to high inventory numbers and low sales due to economic conditions. I'm also wary of any stock purchase that requires the bulk of its sales income from those who have to finance as even those with good credit could have a problem in this market environment. So, yes it is a gamble.
I based my purchase decision on a number of factors:
1) The harsh and snowy winter could result in increased Snowmobile sales.
2) The Vision could bring potential purchasers into the showrooms and could bring with it some new buyers to the Victory brand.
3) Decent dividend
4) It's off it's highs
5) While I'm not great at reading between the lines of financial reports, I ran it by my stock broker (who is very conservative in investments) and he ran the fundamentals and gave me a thumbs-up.
Remember, in investing, it's wise not to gamble with funds you can't afford to lose so please don't take my word as a reason to buy, do your own research. Also, don't ever plan to get rich on a single stock. Polaris (symbol: PII) is a good mix to my personal portfolio, but might not be a good investment for you. If you do buy and it goes down, don't blame me. If it goes up...well that's another story!
Finally, remember that you don't have to purchase a large number of shares...if you decide to invest, only purchase what you're comfortable with. And, don't watch the stock price on a daily basis as it will most likely make you crazy!
Any thoughts? | |
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Cruiser
Posts: 223
Valdosta, GA | I've been keeping an eye on it a bunch lately. If you follow it along with others in the industry (i.e. HOG), you find the same trend happeneing with both. Each one has had similar gains and losses over the past year or so. The end result, though, is that PII is trading around $3/share higher.
I'm skeptical about putting money out on a company that produces what is essentially unnecessary toys, but it does seem like the timing may be right with this one.
As for Harley stock...The big thing HD has going for it over Polaris is the extras. HD doesn't have to sell a ton of bikes to still make money. They can survive a lull in that area and still succeed with clothing, accessories, and memorabilia.
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Cruiser
Posts: 256
Florida | Agreed, but how about the H-D dealers carrying cost on the inventory? That has got to affect future orders. Why would a dealer place new orders if they still have last year's inventory in the showroom? This is a problem that H-D dealers have not often faced.
Have you been to an H-D dealership in your area recently? In South Florida, the dealers are overloaded with inventory. | |
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Visionary
Posts: 1324
So Cal | AP just reported today that Polaris increased its 1Q earning estimate by $.04 a share. May be time to buy. However, the street. com reported earlier that higher gas prices may affect its future earnings. Which is also why I feel they should be promoting the Victory line more. Victorys whole lineup gets 30+ mpg on a bad day and theyre a lot more fun than a hybrid. Easing the gas price crunch and having fun doing it, gotta love it. | |
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Cruiser
Posts: 175
Colorado | Whats the competion doing?
http://www.cycleworld.com/article.asp?section_id=3&article_id=626 | |
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Visionary
Posts: 1324
So Cal | With the value of the $ down, you think it would be cheaper to build in the USA mistakes and all. (ironic huh?) | |
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Cruiser
Posts: 256
Florida | Timing is everything in the market. I ordered research on Polaris (PII) on Tuesday and it just arrived today. The after hours report of increased guidance of .05 per share is great news in this down market. You can bet you'll be hearing about Polaris on the business channels on Friday.
Per the business wires:
"The increase is due to better-than-expected performance from the company's parts, garments and accessories business, as well as its side-by-side vehicle business during the first two months of the year.
The Federal Reserve's interest-rate cuts and snowfall in North America also helped results, according to the company.
Polaris reaffirmed yearly guidance of $3.28 to $3.40 in earnings per share, and revenue growth of 6 percent to 10 percent, implying revenue of $1.89 billion to $1.96 billion. Analysts predict a profit of $3.38 per share on revenue of $1.86 billion.
Shares rose 13 cents to $41 during aftermarket electronic trading, after closing down 78 cents at $40.87."
If you read between the lines, this could be the catalyst that will make the Victory division expand its clothing, parts and accessory line. I'm interpreting the "side-by-side" as an increase of sales of modes...snowmobiles, ATVs...and VICTORIES! This is good news for Victory owners as this line will be getting more media attention. More attention from the media translates in better brand awareness. Brand awareness means more people in the showrooms and increased sales.
This is pretty good for a recessionary market. Here's a thank you for all those Victory owners in the snow belt as this year's heavy snowfalls increases snowmobile sales.
P.S. Tomorrow will be a 400 mile day...my first long trip on my Vision. It will start a bit cool in the high 50s/low 60s and by mid day...the 70s. So, I can test the heated seat and grips. PERFECT RIDING WEATHER!
I'll be updating the blog diary after the trip. http://www.gadgetguru.com.
Also, the trunk is off. New photos soon.
Edited by PalmBeachRider 2008-02-28 10:23 PM
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Visionary
Posts: 1324
So Cal | Long term, I think Polaris is a great invesment. Short term, there are better deals out there right now. Investor sentament does'nt reflect company performance. Boeing set a record for 787 sales in 2007 yet the stock is down because of delays. The people that work for them have jobs until those orders are filled,(3-4 years) yet the stock is down? The value of the dollar is down, making American made products more affordable to the rest of the world. They dont care what the stock is doing, all they know is that they still have a job. All those jobs we out sourced to save money will be comming back, because we raised the standard of living all around the world, and now the US is the cheapest place to do business. Gasoline is comming close to $4 a gallon yet people are still buying SUV's. People bitched about the US in 1973 when gas was rationed, and all we were making was gas guzzlers. Now we make some of the most fuel efficient vehicles, and what do we drive? Toyota makes a hybrid that gets great gas milage, pat them on the back, but they also make a 4 door, 4 wd Tundra with a gass guzzling V-8, which one is the better selling vehicle?
My point? Investment is one thing, reality is another. | |
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Iron Butt
Posts: 904
29 Palms California | O.K. rocket scientists. I told you that it's going to go up. There's really no place to go but up for Polaris/Victory. Cj, I want .01 percent of your profits. Quit being stingy, it was my idea. jiggety, jiggety | |
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Cruiser
Posts: 256
Florida | Well...not a good day in the market today. But, the Polaris increased forecast is one of the few bright spots in American Manufacturing. I'll put a buy/hold on the stock for now. Please note, I am NOT a professional investment adviser...so if you by this or any stock in this market, it's a risk. Buy and hold has worked for me in the past. Dividends are also a good thing...until the Democrats remove the tax benefits of dividends. (Sorry, but let's not start a political flame war on politics... there are many OTHER forums for that discussion. We're Vision riders! | |
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Visionary
Posts: 8144
New Bohemia, VA | Little info from the Polaris site
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=108235&p=irol-newsArtic... | |
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Polaris Stock?